Canadians head to the polls Monday in a high-stakes election dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and trade threats, with Liberal leader Mark Carney emerging as the frontrunner.
Carney, a former central banker with no electoral history, replaced unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau just six weeks ago. His campaign has surged by framing the vote as a choice between experience and uncertainty, warning that Trump’s America poses an existential threat to Canadian sovereignty.
“The U.S. wants to break us, so they can own us,” Carney declared, tapping into national outrage after Trump floated absorbing Canada into the U.S. and launched new tariffs.
Carney’s message appears to have resonated: a CBC poll aggregator put the Liberals at 42% and the Conservatives at 38% on Friday, a sharp reversal from January when the Tories led by over 20 points.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who once seemed destined for victory, has struggled to shift attention back to domestic issues like inflation. Though he’s also criticised Trump, analysts say his partisan tone and focus on affordability haven’t gained enough traction amid fears of U.S. aggression.
With weakened support for the New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois, Liberals may benefit in key battlegrounds like Ontario and Quebec. Advanced turnout has also hit a record high, with 7.3 million voters casting early ballots.
The outcome is expected just hours after polls close on Monday.
