Nigeria’s fragile healthcare system is under growing strain as the number of licensed doctors in the country has fallen to about 40,000, far below the estimated 300,000 required to adequately serve a population of more than 220 million.
This represents a sharp decline from the 55,000 doctors recorded in 2024, according to earlier disclosures by the Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof. Muhammad Pate, who had revealed that thousands of doctors exited active service within the last five years.
Fresh data presented by the Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi, shows that the situation has worsened within just one year, highlighting manpower shortage as one of the most serious challenges confronting the nation’s health sector.
Abayomi spoke at a one-day leadership dialogue in Lagos themed “Strengthening PHC Systems: A Joint Leadership Dialogue,” organised by the Lagos State Primary Health Care Board with support from development partners. The forum examined obstacles limiting the effectiveness of primary healthcare facilities and explored sustainable solutions.
According to the commissioner, Lagos State currently has only about 7,000 doctors serving an estimated population of nearly 30 million people, leaving a shortfall of roughly 33,000 doctors required to meet basic healthcare needs.
“Nigeria has about 40,000 doctors today, against an estimated need of 300,000. Lagos alone needs about 33,000 doctors but has only around 7,000,” Abayomi said, noting that the doctor-to-population ratio remains critically low.
To mitigate the shortage, he said the state government is investing heavily in its newly established University of Medicine and Health, which is expected to produce about 2,500 healthcare workers annually within five years, including doctors, laboratory scientists and other professionals.
The worsening shortage has been linked largely to the mass emigration of health workers, popularly referred to as the japa syndrome.
Doctors, nurses and pharmacists have continued to leave the country in large numbers in search of better working conditions abroad.
A previous survey conducted by a Nigerian polling organisation in collaboration with Nigeria Health Watch revealed that about 88 per cent of Nigerian doctors were seeking opportunities outside the country. Industry leaders have blamed the trend on poor funding, dilapidated facilities, insecurity, weak policy implementation and harsh working conditions.
Figures from the United Kingdom’s General Medical Council indicate that over 11,000 Nigerian-trained doctors are currently practising in the UK alone, underscoring the scale of the brain drain.
The President of the Nigerian Medical Association, Prof. Bala Audu, recently warned that Nigeria has moved beyond passive brain drain and has become a direct recruitment ground for foreign governments. He said international recruiters now visit Nigeria to hire specialists, offering better pay, infrastructure and working environments.
Audu expressed concern that the loss of skilled doctors is occurring at a time when Nigeria’s population continues to grow and key health indicators, including maternal mortality, remain poor. He noted that in some specialties, more Nigerian doctors may now be practising abroad than within the country.
Health experts have cautioned that, at the current pace of emigration, Nigeria may not be able to train enough health workers to meet future demand. Estimates suggest it could take up to 20 years to produce the over 400,000 additional health workers needed to close the gap.
A former President of the NMA, Prof. Mike Ogirima, described Nigeria’s doctor-to-patient ratio as alarming, putting it at about one doctor to 8,000 patients, compared to the World Health Organisation’s recommendation of one to 600.
Ogirima noted that with an annual output of roughly 3,000 doctors, the country would struggle to bridge the deficit, even if no doctors left the system. He warned that overwork, burnout and poor motivation would persist unless urgent reforms are implemented.
Medical professionals have continued to call on federal and state governments to prioritise healthcare funding, improve welfare packages, strengthen security and invest in modern medical equipment.
They also urged the immediate enrolment of doctors in comprehensive insurance schemes as part of broader efforts to retain skilled manpower and stabilise the healthcare system.
